- - Women Jokingly Theorize That 'Having Bare Nails Must Mean We’re Officially in a Recession' (Exclusive)

Charna FlamDecember 24, 2025 at 2:00 AM

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Sinem Temirer/TikTok

Sinem Temirer Nov. 19, 2025 TikTok -

Sinem, a 28-year-old TikTok user, made a video jokingly theorizing that choosing not to get manicures is a "recession indicator"

"It's definitely unusual for our friend group to have our nails undone," she exclusively tells PEOPLE

She explains that the group of women has been "prioritizing things other than getting our nails done"

One TikTok user and her friends are going viral for their unexpected take on the economy.

Sinem, a 28-year-old woman who lives in New York City, posted a TikTok on Nov. 19, sharing a brief look at her group of friends out for dinner, but showing off something unplanned similarity: their unmanicured fingers.

The original TikTok includes a text overlay that begins with "Recession Indicator:" and then shares clips of each of the women sharing their bare fingers. Then another text overlay reads: "No one has their nails done 💅."

"Because paying $100+ tip for Russian Manicure sounds crazy in this economy," the caption reads.

But the group's joint decision to forgo a manicure is atypical, Sinem exclusively tells PEOPLE. "It’s definitely unusual for our friend group to have our nails undone — or at least it used to be."

"We all went to the same salon and would always send each other pictures of whatever new color we got," she explains. While she attributes it to " life has just been life-ing," she also notes that the group has been "prioritizing things other than getting our nails done."

She explains that while out together, they joked, "having bare nails must mean we’re officially in a recession." But a nearby patron jumped into the conversation and showed off her bare nails. "She was visiting from Spain and would rather spend that money on her trip."

Sinem's post received a lot of comments agreeing with her theory. One person wrote, "I miss them but not willing to pay that much anymore 😭." One user added, "I haven’t had my nails done or a pedicure since July. I just can’t afford going every three weeks anymore."

Another added, "Recession indicator is me trying to do my own nails at home 🤣🥴."

Sinem tells PEOPLE she was "shocked" and "amused" by the varying opinions people had about her TikTok.

"A lot of comments mentioned learning to do their own nails after COVID, or that prices have gotten crazy," she says, adding that it's the "same" predicament for her.

"I used to pay around $65 + tip, and this year my salon raised it to $100 + tip," she notes, "Which is a bit much for me right now."

Despite the TikTok users' claims, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not officially declared a recession in the U.S.

Other TikTok users also commented that other beauty trends have been studied as indicators of a recession. One user simply wrote: "Look up the 'lipstick index.' " Which refers to the economic theory that "sales for 'affordable luxury' items such as lipstick, nail polish, and perfume increase," according to Chase Bank. "The theory goes that in a gloomy economy, consumers will curb discretionary spending."

Meanwhile, another user wrote that all the women featured are brunette, seemingly in reference to the "Recession Blonde" phenomenon. The phrase "recession hair" began circulating in 2009, but in 2025, people across the internet focused on people's lack of interest in dying their hair amid economic strife.

People begin to opt for services that allow a subtle transition back to their natural — typically darker — hair and won't require as many touch-ups. Hairstylist Jordan Ware told Allure in March, "When times are hard, hair tends to be put on the back burner."

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These economic theories about beauty and fashion are not a thing of the past. In 1926, economist George Taylor shared the Hemline Index, which theorized there's "a correlation between skirt lengths and the stock market: shorter hemlines in boom times, longer ones in downturns," per NASDAQ.“

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Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Entertainment”